All Good Decks Have One Thing in Common

A fundamental part of every card game is probability. It's the excitement of drawing your next card and the satisfaction of having a well rounded deck that never seems to fail. Yet, when conversations of deck building appear, people are often focused on the individual cards themselves rather than looking at the anatomy of the entire deck.

If there is one factor that most successful decks and strong commanders have, its consistency.

I want to take a moment to break down some statistics of what a consistent EDH deck can look like and how to better understand the purpose of different cards in the process.

1. Consistent Lands

The first goal of any deck is to be able to build a mana base that actually allows you to cast the spells in your deck. Ideally, this means not missing a land drop within the first 3 turns. These beginning turns are crucial and missing a land can be devastating when you are one [Cultivate] cast away from getting your commander out or fixing your colors.

This issue is solved by simply including enough lands. Many times I have sat down to play in a pod and someone misses an early land drop and shares "maybe 32 lands wasn't enough..."

I invite you to not be this person.

In the table below you will find that at 32 lands in your deck the probability of getting 3 lands in the 10 cards you will see since the game has started is only 68.9%. (7 draws in the starting hand with 1 additional for each following turn including the first)

I wouldn't want to sit down to play a game of cards knowing there is a 30% chance that I will be doomed from the start. Insert some dual sided lands or just trim some cards to get yourself back up to at least 37 lands to secure a proper 80% chance that you will have the start you need.

Side note: In casual scenarios where you are allowing multiple mulligans to guarantee that everyone has 3 lands in their starting hands, if people are playing 32 land decks and you are playing a 37 land deck, you are giving them a ~2% advantage to draw a non-land card for each land less that they have in their deck. (Not saying there is anything wrong with home rules, play as you will. Just don't let pregame decisions like that warp how you see your deck relative to the pods'.)

2. Consistent Card Draw

EDH is often a game that favors those who have options. You will especially feel this to be true if someone wheel's (has everyone shuffle up and draw 7) the table mid-game. Having a fresh draw of seven cards in your hand opens up new strategies for yourself and creates fear for your opponent's ability to resolve their much needed spells.

Personally, when I'm playing, I begin to worry about my ability to secure a strong lead if my hand size falls below 3 cards. That's why for the next table I am showing the number of draw spells or engines you would need in order to keep at least 3 cards in hand all the way through turn 8 WHILE playing 1 land and 1 spell each turn.

12 draw spells appears to be the sweet spot of consistently hitting this mark. Considering how many recent creatures and enchantments have been printed that allow for continual card draw, this is easily achievable in most playstyles/decks.

3. Consistent Removal

While I do agree at times that it's annoying to hear "EDH players don't run enough removal", it is unfortunately true in most cases.

There is a lot of stigma around blue Magic players and there is infamy around those who play counterspells. Interaction doesn't always have to be spells that feel dedicated to saying "No." to the other person playing Magic. Removal can be sacrificing an early game utility creature to destroy an artifact, it can be a chaos warp that shrinks a game-changing 4 drop into a less useful but still on the board 1 drop.

There are many ways to run more removal that doesn't feel like you are restricting the other players at your table or playing control, while also interrupting others' strategy so it's not just a game of "who can build the scariest value engine first."

For the final table I am presenting, I want to show how many interaction cards you should have in your deck in order to draw at least 3 by turn 6.

I would suggest aiming for 18 interaction cards in your deck to have a little below a 45% of pulling an answer to someone's threat by turn 6. It sounds like a lot to run 18+ pieces of interaction, but many of these pieces can be cantrips that would also count towards your draw spell count, or dual sided lands that may have removal spells on the other half. Not to mention, 2-3 board wipes are par for the course in most decks anyways.

4. Ramp (or how to fight Variance)

Even though we are focused on consistency by applying the correct proportions of cards, We need to plan for the reality that is getting flooded or never hitting lands. Ramp is that equalizer. Having at least 12 pieces of ramp will almost guarantee that you always hit 5 mana by turn 5. In a game about resource management, ramp is crucial. Cards such as [Commander’s Sphere] can not only guarantee that your mana will be perfect, but it can even be sacrificed to hit your draw needs as well.

**It is important to note that treasure making cards are not always a consistent form of ramp. Many of them are taxes or reliant on the probability of your opponents playing certain types of cards. I would be hesitant including these in your game plan as ramp unless you have at least 10 other pieces of reliable (preferably artifact) ramp.

Conclusion

37 Lands (to allow for 80% chance of 3 lands by turn 3 with no mulligans)

12 Draw Spells (to allow for at least 3 cards in hand through turn 8)

18 Interaction/Removal (to allow for a 40% chance of drawing 3 interaction cards by turn 6)

12 Ramp Pieces (to fight variance and further smooth consistency)

Leaving you a remainder of:

20 Cards to sculpt the remainder of the deck

Having 20 cards left may feel restrictive, but with the high consistency of your deck, you are at a higher chance of not only drawing these cards, but casting them as well.

Keep in mind that you can cut back on any of the required numbers depending on how many sources of repeatable effects you have.

I hope this framework helps give you some perspective on how this game is shaped and why cards are what they are. It’s important to remember that this is a hypothetical model for a consistent deck, not necessarily the strongest deck to fit every commander. It is impossible to account for all play styles, but this should be a fine model to step into any play group and have knowledge that you are going to confidently play some Magic!

Enjoy!

-Autumn